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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 24TH MARCH 2009

GBP/USD closed higher on Monday extending this month's rally. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid- range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, February's high crossing at 1.4940 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3870 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.4635. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4925. First support is the 20- day moving average crossing at 1.4156. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3870.

EUR/USD closed higher on Monday as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3745 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3140 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

USD/CHF closed higher on Monday but remains below the 50% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/CAD closed higher on Monday as it extended this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/JPY closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target.

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