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Monday, April 20, 2009

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 20TH APRIL 2009

GBP/USD closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4630 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 1.5280 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.4960. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.5280. First support is today's low crossing at 1.4755. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4630.

EUR/USD closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1.2840 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3330 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3245. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3330. First support is today's low crossing at 1.3020. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2840.

USD/CHF closed sharply lower on Friday and below the previous reaction low crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, March's low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

USD/CAD closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally, January's high crossing is the next upside target.

USD/JPY closed slightly higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.75 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of last fall's rally crossing at 98.00 is the next downside target.

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