Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 19TH MAY 2009

GBP/USD closed higher on Monday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, December's high crossing at 1.5545 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4957 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

EU/USD closed higher due to short covering on Monday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3520. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that additional profit taking is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3350 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

USD/CHF closed higher due to short covering on Monday and above the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Despite today's rebound, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of last fall's rally crossing is the next upside target.

USD/CAD closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline and closed above the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing is the next upside target.

USD/JPY posted a key reversal down due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at 100.25 is the next upside target.