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Monday, March 23, 2009

Yen falls as investors opt for higher-yielders

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen fell to its lowest in five months against the euro on Monday and dropped more than 1 percent against higher-yielding currencies as investors grew bolder on U.S. plans to tackle financial system problems.

Stock markets around Asia rose in anticipation of plans by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to purge U.S. banks of "toxic" assets, leaving the yen, which had been a gainer last year in times of financial stress, at the mercy of the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Geithner is set to speak at 1245 GMT but a U.S. official gave details of the plan beforehand, saying the government would put in $75 billion to $100 billion from its bailout fund to partner with private investors and buy troubled assets at the heart of the financial crisis.

"It's naturally positive news for the financial markets. The scheme is necessary for the market, and the size of the reported toxic assets to be bought seems large," said Jun Kato, deputy general manager of the treasury business group at Shinkin Central Bank.

Traders and analysts said that as well as improved risk appetite investors were favouring currencies whose central banks had interest rates above zero and looked unlikely to deploy forms of quantitative easing to get their economies moving.

An announcement by the Federal Reserve last week that it would buy up to $300 billion in longer-term government debt sent the dollar into a tailspin as investors fretted it would flood the market with dollars.

The euro rose 1.1 percent to 131.41 yen. Earlier, it hit its highest since late October at 131.97 yen on trading platform ut for the time being, markets seem reassured and risk aversion may ease, said Akira Kato, senior manager for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ's foreign exchange trading department.

"During the week, there will probably be more unwinding of risk-aversion type positions," Kato said, adding that the euro could rise toward 134 yen later this week.

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 23rd MARCH 2009

GBP/USD posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1.4630 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3870 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

EUR/USD posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3775 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2890 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

USD/CHF posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

USD/CAD posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/JPY posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.