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Friday, March 27, 2009

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 27TH MARCH 2009

GBP/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4192 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this month's rally, February's high crossing at 1.4920 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4778. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4920. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4364. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4192.

EUR/USD closed lower on Thursday and below the 50% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3520. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3753 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20- day moving average crossing at 1.3085 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/CHF posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/CAD posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/JPY closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 100.20 is the next upside target.