Custom Search

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Asia Stocks Set for Biggest jump in a Decade

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian stocks edged up on Tuesday and were set to score their biggest monthly rise in a decade as some investors bet the most painful stretch of corporate earnings damage may be over and bought Asian technology shares.

As the first quarter and Japan's financial year draws to a close, stocks, oil prices and higher-yielding currencies gained after a one-day battering on news that the U.S. government was considering pushing General Motors (GM.N) into bankruptcy.

Government bonds retreated as equity markets regained their composure, while the dollar slipped as investors favored riskier assets. Asian stocks outside Japan were set to finish the first quarter with a dip of 0.7 percent but were up 15 percent in March, what would be the largest rise since 1999.

"There has been a huge change in sentiment. Rather than anticipating huge sell-offs in the U.S., we've been anticipating rallies," said Peter Wright, a dealer with Burrell Stockbroking in Sydney. Many stock markets have thrashed in ranges near last year's lows, with investors cautious about calling a turnaround as the global economy remains mired in a deep recession.

The economic fallout from the financial crisis is still taking a big toll on many economies, with data from Japan showing unemployment rising to a three-year high as the country's grapples with its worst recession since World War Two. But Japan's Nikkei average .N225 climbed 0.9 percent, highlighting how many investors are looking beyond the bleak conditions and expect stimulus spending to help spur a recovery later in the year.

Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso is expected to unveil the outlines of a spending package on Tuesday ahead of the Group of 20 gathering of rich and developing nations this week. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 1.4 percent and is up 27 percent from a five-year low struck last November.

The Shanghai Composite has rebounded the most in the January-March quarter with a rise of 28 percent, making its the best-performing big equity market so far this year after being the hardest hit in 2008.

The tech-heavy Taiwan Weighted index was poised to finish the quarter with a 15 percent gain, boosted by incoming orders from China as part of its hefty stimulus spending.

Shares of Taiawn's Compal Electronics (2324.TW), the world's No. 2 contract laptop PC maker, rose 4 percent after it said demand from China ,the United States and Europe is picking up and its plans to add about 30 percent more employees by June.

"In the current downturn, tech shares like Compal whose sales and profits could still keep rising, are favorable," said Andrew Deng, a vice president of Taiwan International Securities Corp in Taipei.

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 31ST MARCH 2009

GBP/USD closed lower on Monday and spiked below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4190 as it extended the decline off last week's high. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4190 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this month's rally, February's high crossing at 1.4920 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4400. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4752. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4190. Second support is today's low crossing at 1.4123.

EUR/USD closed lower on Monday as it extends last Friday's decline below the 10-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3085 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3085 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/CHF closed lower on Monday as it extends last Friday's decline below the 10-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing is the next upside target.

USD/CAD closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 78.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the today's high crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

USD/JPY closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The mid- range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 99.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 100.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.