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Wednesday, April 1, 2009

FOREX-Dollar and Yen Rise on GM Report buf off Highs

TOKYO, April 1 (Reuters) - The dollar and the yen rose on Wednesday on a report that the White House was prepared to let U.S. automakers go bankrupt, but retreated from the day's highs after a U.S. administration official said it was inaccurate.

Bloomberg reported that U.S. President Barack Obama has determined that a prepackaged bankruptcy is the best way for General Motors Corp (GM.N), quoting people familiar with the matter.

But a senior U.S. administration official said President Barack Obama's thinking on the crisis facing GM has not changed since Monday, saying the report was "not accurate."
The report spurred risk aversion, prompting investors to dump the euro and other higher-yielding currencies and return to the safety of the greenback.

That also sent the yen broadly higher, a sharp turnaround as the Japanese currency had hit a one-month low versus the dollar after the Bank of Japan's tankan corporate survey showed a dire picture of an economy in recession.

"It is like a repeat of what we saw on Monday when news about the U.S. rejection of automakers' restructuring plans also hit the market in Tokyo hours and pushed dollar/yen down sharply," said a senior currency options trader at a Japanese bank.

"But the impact seems to be smaller this time as there is more optimism in the market that the U.S. economy may be bottoming out," the trader said.

Reduced investor risk appetite sent higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar lower, which was also dented by data showing Australian retail sales fell by the most in nine years, adding to the case for a cut in interest rates next week.
The New Zealand dollar extended a big slide after New Zealand's central bank warned on Wednesday that a recent rise in market interest rates was unwarranted and out of sync with its view of the economy.

The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's performance against six major currencies, rose 0.3 percent to 85.743 .DXY, but off an earlier high of 85.940.

The euro was down 0.2 percent to $1.3218 , above earlier low of $1.3173.
The dollar fell 0.4 percent from late New York trade to 98.60 yen after tumbling as low as 98.21 yen on trading platform EBS.

The dollar had gained earlier to 99.48 yen, the highest since March 5, after the BOJ's tankan survey showed confidence among Japan's big manufacturers tumbled at its fastest pace ever in the first quarter to the worst on record.

The survey highlighted the pain companies are facing as the global economic crisis scythes through Japan's exports.
The euro fell 0.6 percent to 130.30 yen after falling as low as 129.94 yen from earlier highs near 131.90 yen.

"The report about Chrysler's possible bankruptcy is now impacting the whole market," said a senior trader at a Japanese bank.

"U.S. stock futures are looking terrible after a positive close in New York, prompting market players to dump currencies they had bought against the yen," the trader said.

U.S. stock futures SPc1 fell 1.3 percent in Asian trade after a rise on Tuesday, while Tokyo shares climbed 1.5 percent .N225 with other regional stock markets also gaining.

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 1ST APRIL 2009

GBP/USD closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high- range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4215 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4420 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4420. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4752. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4215. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 1.4122.

EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends Monday's decline, the 20- day moving average crossing at 1.3120 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3120 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3440 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

USD/CHF closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10- day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook.

USD/CAD closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the Monday's high crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

USD/JPY closed lower on Tuesday and extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing 97.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing 100.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.