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Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 08TH APRIL 2009

GBP/USD closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high- range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 1.5280 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4400 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.4960. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.5280. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4535. Second support is the 20- day moving average crossing at 1.4400.

EUR/USD closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3300. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 1.3120 are needed to confirm that a short- term top has been posted.

USD/CHF closed lower on Tuesday as it extended Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends last week's rally, March's high crossing is the next upside target.

USD/CAD closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally, March's high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/JPY closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of last fall's rally crossing at 98.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.