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Monday, April 13, 2009

FOREX-Dollar edges up Vs Yen before US Bank earnings

TOKYO, April 13 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up against the yen in quiet trade on Monday with many overseas players still away for the Easter holiday and others waiting until the U.S. corporate earnings season gets into full swing.

U.S. banks including Goldman Sachs (GS.N), JPMorgan (JPM.N) and Citigroup (C.N) are set to report first-quarter results this week, and traders are keen to see how stock markets react to these earnings reports.

But after a relaxation of industry accounting standards, analysts say it will be difficult to gauge losses from bad loans in areas like real estate and consumer credit. "Market participants generally stayed on the sidelines before the U.S. bank earnings and they are waiting for stocks' moves following the results," said a dealer at a Japanese bank.

Last week, the dollar rose against the yen, buoyed by a rally in U.S. shares after positive earnings guidance from U.S. bank Wells Fargo (WFC.N). "If U.S. earnings results show signs that the U.S. is pulling away from the worst of the economic downturn, risk appetite is expected to grow, putting pressure on the yen," said Yoshihisa Kanzaki, a currency dealer at Shinkin Central Bank.

Others said the currency market has priced in positive U.S. earnings figures, so downward pressure on the yen could be limited even if the results are better than expected, and that the market is more likely to swayed by negative surprises.

The dollar was trading around 100.37 yen compared with 100.22 yen in late Tokyo trading on Friday. The U.S. currency touched 101.45 yen last week, its highest in six months.

The euro was quoted at $1.3165 , down from $1.3186 on Friday when it also slipped to $1.3090, a level not seen since mid-March.

Against the yen, the euro was at 132.16 yen , down from 132.24 yen. It climbed to 137.42 yen last week, its highest point in six months.

The Australian dollar rose above 73.00 yen , the highest since October, before falling back to 72.51 yen.

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 13TH APRIL 2009

GBP/USD closed lower on Thursday as it extends last week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing is the next upside target.

EUR/USD closed lower on Thurs and below the 20-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews last week's rally, March's high crossing is the next upside target.

USD/CHF closed higher on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews last week's rally, March's high crossing is the next upside target.

USD/JPY closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If it extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of last fall's rally crossing is the next downside target.