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Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Asian Shares Advance Despite Plenty of Fears

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares rose to a six-month high on Tuesday after Goldman Sachs' stronger-than-expected profit signaled the worst could be behind for U.S. banks, emboldening investors to chase after riskier assets.

Asian credit markets continued to improve, while the yen, a currency that benefits during fearful times, fell to a six-month low against the Australian dollar.

However, there are also plenty of doubts about how much longer the rally in Asian stock markets can be sustained given that some analysts believe the full brunt of the deep global recession has yet to be reflected.

Singapore eased monetary policy to effectively devalue its currency after posting on Tuesday its worst quarterly economic contraction ever, while a forecast for weaker demand for oil by the International Energy Agency sent crudes tumbling to below $50 a barrel.

Asian automaker shares slid on fears General Motors Corp (GM.N) was being pushed into bankruptcy by the U.S. government, helping send Japan's Nikkei average .N225 down 1.3 percent.

"If GM were to go bankrupt, that would raise questions about what would happen to Japanese auto-parts makers and Japanese automakers' dealer networks. The implications are broad," said Takahiko Murai, general manager of equities at Nozomi Securities.

"Although the financial sector seems to have seen the worst, a recovery for manufacturers has been slow and worries remain."

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS at one point hit its highest since mid-October, when shares were in the midst of a slide following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the previous month.

The MSCI gauge was up 1.5 percent as of 0240 GMT, as major markets such as in Hong Kong .HSI and Australia .AXJO gained more than 2 percent each after a four-day weekend also seen in other Asian countries.

The gains came after Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) on Monday posted much higher-than-expected first-quarter profit as it took more trading risk, and said it plans a $5 billion common share sale to help pay back government funds.

The results followed Wells Fargo & Co's (WFC.N) surprising announcement last week that it expects to report a record first-quarter profit.

Though Goldman and Wells Fargo did not suffer as much as other U.S. financial firms, at least their announcements were seen providing some signs the U.S. banking industry is finally stabilizing after months of credit-related losses.

Markets in South Korea , Taiwan and Shanghai .SSEC were largely unchanged on the day.

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 14TH APRIL 2009

GBP/USD closed higher on Monday as it extends last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing is the next upside target.

EUR/USD closed lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews last week's rally, March's high crossing is the next upside target.

USD/CHF closed higher on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Teusday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews last week's rally, March's high crossing is the next upside target.

USD/JPY closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If it extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of last fall's rally crossing is the next downside target.