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Thursday, April 23, 2009

FOREX-Yen Rises Vs Dollar on U.S. Bank Jitters

TOKYO, April 23 (Reuters) - The yen rose broadly on Thursday, climbing back towards a three-week high against the dollar touched the previous day, as U.S. stock futures fell and concerns about the banking sector re-emerged after disappointing earnings from Morgan Stanley.

S&P futures fell 0.3 percent SPc1 after U.S. stocks faced a late hour sell-off on Wednesday, with investors concerned about the outlook for banks ahead of the U.S. government's "stress test" results.

The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. banks will be briefed by regulators as early as Friday on how they performed in the tests before the results are made public later.

Some estimates of banks' likely losses that were used in the stress tests were tougher than expected, the newspaper said.

That fanned fears about more losses at the banks included in the tests after some upbeat earnings reports earlier this month, prompting investors to cut riskier trades in which they had sold the yen against other majors, traders said.

"The currency market is lacking a clear direction, just as U.S. stocks are," said a trader at a Japanese bank.

"We have two big factors that are swinging the markets between optimism and pessimism: the eventual state of the troubled U.S. automakers, and the results of bank stress tests," the trader said.

The dollar fell 0.2 percent to 97.79 yen , sliding back near a three-week trough of 97.57 yen touched on Wednesday.

The euro fell 0.4 percent to 126.99 and dropped 0.1 percent to $1.2987 .

The Australian dollar gave up earlier gains against the yen and the dollar as most Asian stocks fell and metals like Shanghai copper dropped amid the bleak outlook for the global economy.

The International Monetary Fund cut growth forecasts for every major economy, in line with the fund's assessment that the world was in its deepest post-World War Two recession.

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY OF 23RD APRIL 2009

GBP/USD posted an inside day with a lower on Wednesday as it extends its decline against the dollar. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing is the next downside target.

EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bullish outlook.

USD/CHF closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bullish outlook.

USD/JPY posted a key reversal and closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bullish outlook.