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Thursday, April 30, 2009

FOREX-Dollar slides broadly as risk demand picks up

LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - The dollar fell broadly on Thursday, hitting a three-week low against a basket of currencies as speculation that the global economic downturn is slowing continued to raise demand for riskier assets.

Concerns about the spread of swine flu waned on the view that the disease thus far would have limited economic impact, and a report of an imminent bankruptcy filing by Chrysler did little to stifle the risk rally, with analysts saying that markets have already priced in the U.S. automaker's failure.

The euro climbed along with high yielders as investors looked beyond a weak headline reading of U.S. growth and focussed on signs the economy may pick up in the coming months, which boosted currencies perceived to be higher risk.

"We've seen the stabilisation in the market, so the downside momentum is slowing, that is what the leading indicators are telling us, be it in the U.S. or the euro zone," said Michael Klawitter, senior forex strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt.

"Despite the discussion of swine flu, the market no longer sees this as an economic risk, so risk aversion continues to decline, as reflected in equity markets, and in this environment, risk is to the upside."

European shares .FTEU3 rose nearly 2 percent in early trade.

Analysts said that optimistic market sentiment would likely continue so long as economic data does not significantly alter the view that the global economy is starting to show signs of recovery.

The dollar index .DXY, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against the nation's biggest trading partners, was 0.8 percent lower at 83.948 by 0754 GMT, having fallen as low as 83.911, its lowest since early April.

Losses in the index were driven by a 0.8 percent climb in the euro to $1.3370 , which rose as high as around $1.3385 in early trade to hit its strongest in more than two weeks.

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 30STH APRIL 2009

GBP/USD closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rebound off last week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4690 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends today's rally, this month's high crossing at 1.5050 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 1.4417 would renew the decline off April's high and could lead to a test of the reaction low crossing at 1.4175. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.4820. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1.5050. First support is last week's low crossing at 1.4417. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.4175.

EUR/USD closed higher on Wednesday renewing the rally off last week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1.3400 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 1.2620.

USD/CHF closed higher on Wednesday renewing the rally off last week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target.

USD/CAD closed sharply higher on Wednesday renewing the rally off last week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's rally, April's high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the friendly outlook.

USD/JPY closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at 99.10 is the next upside target.