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Friday, April 3, 2009

FOREX-Yen, Dollar pare losses on caution before US jobs

TOKYO, April 3 (Reuters) - The yen and the dollar fell to multi-month lows on Friday after G20 leaders boosted investor risk appetite, but later trimmed their losses as some caution returned ahead of U.S. employment figures due later in the day.

G20 leaders clinched a $1.1 trillion deal on Thursday to counter the worldwide economic crisis and the United States said it would change accounting rules to allow banks more flexibility in valuing toxic assets.

Both developments improved investors' appetite for risk and weighed on the Japanese and U.S. currencies on Friday, with the yen hitting a 5-½ month low and the dollar a three-month trough versus the Australian dollar in early trade.

The Japanese and U.S. currencies edged up, however, as the market began looking ahead to U.S. jobs figures at 1230 GMT.

The employment numbers are seen as a potential dampener of risk appetite, with economists in a Reuters survey expecting 650,000 jobs were lost and the unemployment rate hit a 26-year high of 8.5 percent in March.

"The yen selling was not sustainable before the U.S. jobs data release. Opinion may be tilted towards the yen weakening in the longer term, but the market would first like to see this major event through," said a dealer at a Japanese brokerage.

The dollar gained 0.1 percent to 99.65 yen after reaching as high as 100.18 yen on trading platform EBS, the first time it has pierced 100.00 since early November.

The euro dipped 0.4 percent to $1.3413 , after climbing 1.6 percent in the previous session, and eased 0.3 percent to 133.56 yen after climbing to a five-month high of 134.99 yen early in the day.

The euro jumped the previous day after the European Central Bank eased less than the market was braced for, cutting rates by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent instead of an expected 50 points.
The Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent to $0.7131 after touching a three-month high of $0.7230 and slipped 0.3 percent to 70.95 yen after reaching a 5-½ month high of 72.31 yen .

The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's strength against a basket of key currencies, edged up 0.3 percent to 84.540 .DXY.

Market Commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY ON 03RD APRIL 2009

GBP/USD closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of yesterday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook.

EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates yesterday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook.

USD/CHF closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook.

USD/JPY closed lower on Thursday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.